Putin suggests he could be persuaded to call off his dogs if he gets the Donbas provinces recognized as independent states, and Crimea agreed to belong to Russia.
With some amendments, I’d take that deal. Crimea has long been written off. And if there is a significant contingent of separatists agitating in the Donbas, maybe Ukraine is well rid of them.
1) Ukraine’s Security Must be Assured
Of course, the first concession Putin must give is assurance of Ukraine’s security. If you believe that Putin’s word on paper is sufficient, I have an agreement signed in Budapest to sell you.
IMO, the one thing that could guaranty security from another Russian attack, to the extent anything can so guaranty, is Russia agreeing that Ukraine can join NATO. NATO has demonstrated it is too afraid of war with Russia to defend a non-NATO country (and rightly so). Putin won that game of chicken. But I don’t think he’d risk it against a NATO member. That’s the one line he hasn’t yet crossed. Plus, Russia’s military has now been exposed as a relative paper tiger. It’s a reasonable hope that Putin would take the win and not risk that humiliation again, let alone, risk a powerful attack on his own land.
I think it would be in NATO members’ best interests to admit Ukraine. We’ve seen the horrible costs of Russia’s aggression to the NATO countries in the measures we have been willing to take to pressure Putin; plus the cost (financial and political) of the refugee crisis; plus the risk of nuclear meltdown at Ukraine power plants--to say nothing of the crushing psychic costs of watching the horror play out. Short of regime change (and how effective could that be, in a country that, let’s be honest, has a healthy MAGA counterpart that supports him?), NATO membership is the only security guaranty I can see working.
In fact, I think the deal should be that Russia agrees that any European or East European country that wants membership gets it, and I’d encourage Finland, Sweden et al, to sign up quickly.
2) Ukrainians in the conceded territories must be given the option to relocate to Ukraine
3) Costs of reconstruction and repatriation must be addressed
Russia should put up at least some substantial portion of the cost of rebuilding Ukraine and repatriating Ukrainians relocating from the Donbas and Crimea. It would be in the interests of the good guy nations to pony up some too, if need be. And I imagine many private parties would be willing to contribute; I know I’d far happier seeing my money go to that cause than refugee organizations.
4) Russia must be prohibited from carrying out reprisals
Finally, there must be some guaranty that Russia does not carry out reprisals against its perceived enemies (Zelensky and similar individuals; Russian anti-war protesters; journalists and opposition figures). I’d want Navalny sprung from prison. For Russian residents, that might have to mean relocation to another country; such vulnerable persons must be allowed that option.
How we assure Putin does not carry out reprisals, or his assassin squad not pursue his enemies abroad, is of course a difficult problem. Perhaps it can be made clear that we’ve seen how effective our economic sanctions are and won’t hesitate to use them again if the agreement is breached.
Your thoughts?