There used to be in the American public political perception, as far as I could make it out on this site for example, a tendency to think that the European countries and Europe as a whole are more liberal, maybe even more socialist outright than the US. Depending on viewpoints, this was often mixed with a little admiration or regrets that similar sanity might not also pervade US American political discourse. At times it was even somewhat justified. We used to have strong left-center social democratic parties in many Europeans, derived from the old worker’s movement tradition which remained strong on this continent and survived even through the more ordoliberal times of the 1990s and 2000s. We also had a very strong classical-liberal political tribe on this continent, which was not like in the US distorted into the anarchic-antisocial libertarianism, but kept more or less in the traditions of JS Mill / Tubman et al, its founders.
Well, prepare to revise these impressions. There is a little political earthquake going on in all of Europe, country by country, and it is destroying the social-liberal fundament on which the EU was built and the political traditions in many of our constituent countries. The extreme right wing is rolling up this continent, and when Biden will enter his second administration, the above faces (in the title image) may be representative of the Europe that he then has to do with.
2022 had a few elections.
- In Sweden, the previous center-left-green government lost the elections and was replaced by a government that rests on the support of the Sweden Democrats, a very right wing party formerly accused of Neonazi tendencies. They are said to have shed them and moved to the center, how much remains to be seen.
- In Finland there were elections too, in which the here much beloved Sanna Marin lost her majority and her government was replaced by one reliant on the support of the Finns party, formerly ‘True Finns’, characterised as ‘nationalist right wing populist’. They just had a little scandal where a minister was forced to quit after suggesting that climate crisis could be solved “by abortions in Africa”.
- In Italy there were elections too, in which the — on this website less admired — Giorgia Meloni with her ‘neofascist’ Brothers of Italy replaced the previous center left government. It is telling that her party, in spite of the label, is not among the mmost radical of its type in this continent. Meloni has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine, which shows that nationalists can recognize national interests, but she governs Italy from the right wing domestic standpoint you would expect.
- In Spain, there have been groundshaking regional elections, in which the center-left parties were wiped, and lost the provinces they still controlled, to the unholy alliance of the extremist right of Vox allied with the more traditional corruptoconservative PP, which is contested between its traditional leader Feijoo and the radical Isabel Diaz Ayuso, who wants to base a national right-populist government on Vox support and content. There are early elections, and it is near certain that the Vox-PP alliance will take over.
- In Poland, there are elections later this year. I do not need to introduce the PiS led government here. The crucial role Poland played in the early Ukraine support has greatly expanded their political weight in the EU. The national-authoritarian government has now set up a system of Committees to investigate Russian influence on Polish politics. These Committees are supposed to have the power to identify “russian influenced” persons, and ban them from standing for public office, without recourse to judicial overview. It is expected that this is used against opposition politicians, the most prominent one of which is Donald Tusk. This has already drawn a sharp rebuke from the US government, appealing to Poland not to endanger the legitimacy of the upcoming election. Its quite the HUAC clone.
- In France … Elections there are still a ways off (but not that long anymore). You only need to read the news. Everything happening there plays right in the hands of the Le Pen faction. Unless some social miracle happens, a Le Pen takeover is now a realistic prospect. Imagine what would have happened these last days with a Le Pen (or Zemmour) led Republic.
- In Germany, the same : Elections seem away off still but they do come closer. The current center-left tripartite government is struggling, because in essence they do not really agree on much. The story of the German Ukraine support is exemplary. Eventually Germany did all the right things, but only after so much hand wringing that everyone long since believed they are useless. And now, the ultra right wing of the AfD reaps the electoral rewards. They have gotten 50% level support in some recent small local by elections (in theior strongest region). It is unlikely that they will get into national government soon, but the next government will be a corrupto-conservative one that will be driven ideologically by competition with the AfD, not the center left. The AfD overlaps into outright neo nazi dom and pro Putinism.
So .. give it 2-3 years and you may have a Europe that is governed by the extreme right, hard right, populist right, in all its shades, from the Mediterranean to the Arctic. All through. Imagine a European Commission staffed by right wingers, of the above described Finnish abortion commenter type. That is the Europe you are soon going to see.
The center left, let alone that what you here would call ‘progressive’, have decisively lost support.
In my little country, the Netherlands, a similar party the BBB, demands that nitrate pollution is not an issue; they suggest it is an invention of city elites to force farmers off their lands so they can make a quick buck in developing the lands for real estate to be marketed to the International Finance Capital.
That’s the future. We will have governments that shrug while migrants drown; if any get saved, they will be dumped on African shores: Refoulement will be standard. Governments will indulge in domestic militarization, all the while engaging in beggar thy neighbor politics, and the EU may not survive it, except as a hollow shell stripped of political relevance. That is the Europe that Ukraine will try to join.
Consider this an early warning. The main proximal reason is that the progressive side has ‘gambled away’ its electoral chances. If it does not self-examine this, it will be marginal. Continent-wide.