A very quick diary regarding the first of PPP's polls this week. Obama leads Romney by 5 and is at the 50 percent mark. Partisan identification in the poll was D+4, which is almost exactly the partisan ID we normally see in that state.
Other notes from the poll under the squiggle:
Ohio voters believe the Democrats had a better convention than the GOP, by a 47-35 margin.
Romney has a -5 popularity in the state, at 44-49 favorable/unfavorable.
Polling confirms my suspicion that Obama was up at least 3-4 pts in Ohio (and was more favorable than I thought). This especially confirms the reasoning for Romney pulling out of PA and MI (because he's probably down almost 10 in each state, if not more than that).
Michelle Obama is 57/35 favorable/unfav
Bill Clinton is 57/34 favorable/unfav
6:41 PM PT: Update: 1,072 Ohio voters polled between September 7-9, MOE +/- 3.0% (completely post DNC AND post-August jobs report)
6:51 PM PT: Here's the link
http://twitter.com/...
7:23 PM PT: Full PPP poll now posted:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Other important #:
Obama at 48-48 approval rating, up 5 points from PPP's last poll (he was 46-51, or -5)
Romney leads 46-44 with indies, but Obama's base is more unified around him. Obama leads with Dems by 86/11 while Romney leads with Repubs 83/13.
Obama only trails 50-46 with white voters, and actually leads 49-47 with seniors
By a 60-31 margin, Ohio voters believe Obama gives better speeches than Romney
7:31 PM PT: In the full crosstabs, Obama leads 81/15 with African Americans, and 51/40 with everyone else. I suspect that he leads around 92/5 with African-Americans, 60/40 with everyone else, but trails with whites by about 3 more points than the poll suggests, which would give us the same Obama +5 if you crunched the numbers.
PPP also put out a tweet about NC: "So do y'all want the NC results tonight?" If PPP puts them up I'll update the diary and title.
8:38 PM PT: Update on NC: PPP tweets that "North Carolinians are pretty intractable- Obama leads 49-48, about identical to 48-48 last week".
8:45 PM PT: Other tweets from PPP:
57% of NC voters believe the convention was a good thing for the state, while 15% believe it was bad for the state; 26% are neutral on DNC convention in Charlotte.
NC voters believed the Dems had a better convention by 8 pts (47/39)
9:54 PM PT: Last update of the night: The full NC poll is out, and here are the two links:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Main takeaways:
1,087 LV, MOE +/- 3%
PPP polled Obama/Romney 25 times in NC. 24 times, it's been a 3 point race or closer either way, indicating that NC is truly a dead heat, not a likely Romney state, and that the conditions on the ground are pretty similar to 2008.
Both candidates have 46% of the vote permanently locked up here, and there are perhaps even fewer undecideds here than in Ohio, if that's possible.
Obama is finally in favorable territory for the first time in ages in NC (April, as a matter of fact): He stands at 50-49 (+1). Romney is almost exactly even as well, at 48-49 (-1). Very slight advantage to Obama.
Bill Clinton has a 59/34 favorable/unfav in NC (+25).
Obama drew even with independents, but Romney's base completely rallied behind him. Obama is tied 48-48 with indies but Romney now has 93% of the GOP vote, while Obama carries 81% of the Dem vote.
Obama has a 27 point gender gap in NC: He leads with women by 13 but trails with men by 14. Slightly more women in the sample, as to be expected.
Obama has a 89-8 lead with African Americans, but Romney leads 60-37 with whites. If we can get the white vote % up to 40% in NC for Obama we'll take the state for sure.
Digging deeper into the crosstabs, 63% of the voters are 46 or older. I think if we get that # down to 60% we'll take the state.
Time to have at the results!