Welcome to the December 2018 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Seats with an asterik next to them indicate seats whose final 2018 result is still in question so the incumbent party indicator is just my best guess. Just for fun I added Electoral College ratings, too. (Please don’t make me regret it by litigating the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about). Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
|
NC-GOV (Tilt D)
|
LA-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NJ-SEN
VA-SEN
|
|
AZ-SEN
CO-SEN (Tilt D)
ME-SEN (Tilt R)
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
*MS-SEN is rated Safe R under the assumption that Cindy Hyde-Smith wins the runoff, which I view as very likely.
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
CA-7
CA-21*
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-3
IL-6
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
IL-14 (Tilt D)
GA-6 (Tilt D)
ME-2
MN-7
NC-9 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-23
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
GA-7*
IL-13
MI-6
NC-13
NY-24
NY-27
PA-10
WA-3
|
AK-AL
AZ-6
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-3
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MO-2
MT-AL
NC-2
NY-1
NY-2
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
TX-24
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
|
Safe R to Likely R:
IN-5: Donnelly won the district.
TX-SEN: So I realized if I have TX on the Presidential board, I should probably put this race on the board as well, although Cornyn will be a tougher target than Cruz.
Lean D to Tossup:
MN-7: Nothing’s really changed, I’ve just re-thought this one some. Trump is going to win this district by double digits again, and considering his margins the last couple cycles, I think if Peterson gets a serious opponent he’s more likely than not to go down.
Tossup / Tilt D to Lean D:
CA-48: I was being too cautious about this one, I expect Trump to lose the district again and Rouda is a good fit.
TX-7: Same deal as CA-48.
Tossup to Likely D:
CA-21: Pretty self-explanatory: a change in expected incumbent. Cox should be fine here as an incumbent in a Clinton +16 seat in a presidential cycle.