BeloitDem
Welcome to the November 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings!s. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
GOVERNORS
CA-GOV
CO-GOV
CT-GOV
IL-GOV
OR-GOV
MD-GOV
NM-GOV
RI-GOV
ME-GOV
MN-GOV
NV-GOV
AZ-GOV
GA-GOV
KS-GOV
MI-GOV
PA-GOV
WI-GOV
NH-GOV
MA-GOV
FL-GOV
IA-GOV
OH-GOV
SC-GOV
TX-GOV
VT-GOV
SENATE
CO-SEN
NV-SEN
AZ-SEN
GA-SEN
NH-SEN
PA-SEN
WI-SEN
NC-SEN
FL-SEN
IA-SEN
OH-SEN
MO-SEN
Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN
Note on house ratings: States will be added to the House rating list on a case by case basis. Intially, I’m just rating at large seats and seats where the range of possible redistricting results is narrow enough to allow a reasonable approximation of a rating. A table of which states have been rated and which states haven’t is below the rating table.
HOUSE
CO-7
CT-2
CT-5
IL-6
IL-13
IL-14
IN-1
MN-3
NH-2
OR-4
OR-5
OR-6
TX-28
CO-8
IL-17
MN-2
NC-2
NV-3
NV-4
IA-3
ME-2
NH-1
TX-15
VA-2
VA-7
CO-3
IA-1
NE-2
WI-3
AK-AL
AR-2
CO-4
CO-5
IA-2
MN-1
MN-8
MT-1
NC-4
NC-11
NC-14
NE-1
TX-23
TX-24
VA-1
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
Welcome to the October 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings!s. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
NJ-GOV
VA-GOV
MT-WEST
Welcome to the September 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! I’m switching to a monthly schedule because we’re about to start seeing a lot more actual House districts. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
Welcome to the Summer 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! I got bored and rated a bunch of states where the rage of redistricting results are limited, ratings might shift line a position or so if the districts are substantially different from what I’m expecting. This will also probably be the last rating on a quarterly schedule since I expect to start seeing a lot more maps after the Census data comes out in August. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
Welcome to the Spring 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! (I think I’m moving to quarterly on this project until we start actually having House diststricts). All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
Welcome to the inital edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district, and underlined seats represent seats for which the 2020 election result is still unclear, As always, feel free to quibble.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
CO
ME
NV
VA
AZ
MI
PA
MN
NE-02
NH
WI
FL (Tilt D)
GA
NC
ME-02
TX
IA
OH
AK
IN
KS
MO
MT
NE-01
SC
MT-GOV
MO-GOV
MN-SEN
VA-SEN
MI-SEN
ME-SEN
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
MT-SEN (Tilt R)
AK-SEN
KS-SEN
SC-SEN
TX-SEN
AL-SEN
MS-SEN
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-39
FL-27
FL-13
KS-3
MI-11
NJ-5
NJ-11
NY-19
PA-7
PA-17
PA-8
TX-32
WA-8
AZ-1
CA-21
CA-25
CA-48
GA-6
GA-7
MI-8
NJ-3
NJ-7
NY-11
SC-1
TX-7
AZ-6
FL-26 (Tilt D)
IN-5
MI-3
MO-2 (Tilt D)
MT-AL (Tilt R)
NJ-2 (Tilt D)
NM-2 (Tilt D)
NY-22
NY-24 (Tilt D)
OH-1
OK-5
PA-1
PA-10
TX-21
TX-22
UT-4 (Tilt D)
KS-2
MI-6
MN-7
NC-8
NY-1
NY-2
TX-3
TX-10
TX-31
WA-3
CA-4
CA-22
CA-50
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
IL-12
KY-6
MI-7
NC-9
NY-21
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-6
TX-25
SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS
CA-29
CA-53
WA-10
Likely Cardenas
Lean Jacobs
Lean Strickland
GA (Tilt R)
TX (Tilt R)
GA-SEN A (Tilt R)
MT-SEN
CA-49
FL-7
PA-6
MN-2*
NY-24 (Tilt R)
PA-1 (Tilt R)
*Rating for MN-2 is for who will hold the seat in March, regardless of when the election is held.
Tilt Jacobs
IA-SEN (Tilt R)
VA-10
MT-AL
TX ((Tilt R)
FL-26
NJ-2 (Tilt R)
CA-45
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-24
FL-25
AZ (Tilt D)
FL
PA (Tilt D)
IA-4
NY-27
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